Italy’s Indo-Pacific tilt (2021–2024). Diving into the determinants of a security policy change

Between 2021 and 2024, Italy significantly increased its security engagement in the Indo-Pacific, culminating in the 2024 deployment of the Cavour Strike Group across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. This shift marks a security policy change for a country traditionally focused on the Euro-Mediterranean space and potentially challenges prevailing assumptions about the limited projection of secondary powers. Drawing on a theory-guided elite interview methodology and primary sources, the study identifies and weighs the external and domestic drivers behind Italy’s evolving posture. In doing so, it contributes to the literature on secondary power activism and sheds light on the emerging European military presence in the Indo-Pacific. The research finds that Italy’s security tilt toward the Indo-Pacific is primarily driven by mounting US pressure – both bilateral and multilateral – which stands out as the most significant external determinant. Additional factors include the pursuit of national prestige, defence industry interests, and, to a lesser extent, inputs from European and Indo-Pacific partners and perceived security risks.