Spatial Analysis of Urban Decay: Spillover Effects and Significant Patterns for the City of Rome (Italy)

Contemporary cities face multiple complex challenges, including those related to the social, environmental, and economic aspects of urban decay. This phenomenon represents a critical issue for both built and non-built environments, potentially compromising the achievement of sustainable urban development goals. The spatial patterns of urban decay contain valuable information for developing targeted policies and understanding the causes and effects of its territorial distribution, revealing how urban areas interact and influence each other. The aim of this study is to identify the spillover effects and the most significant spatial patterns of urban decay in the city of Rome (Italy). The application of spatial correlation techniques, such as the bivariate Moran’s index, enables the identification of significant relationships between key aspects of urban decay, using a set of indicators capable of representing the social, environmental, and economic dynamics of the phenomenon in Rome. The results confirm the necessity of considering the spatial dimension of phenomena such as urban decay in urban planning, taking into account the interactions between different areas. Specifically, within the Grande Raccordo Anulare (GRA), which includes the historic center and consolidated residential areas of the city, the analysis has shown that some critical issues are concentrated in specific areas but generate spillover effects in adjacent zones. These findings support the implementation of priority urban regeneration strategies, providing an objective and comprehensive framework to facilitate the achievement of sustainable urban development goals.