Investigating the antecedents of natural hazards risk perception: A meta-analysis

Research aims and objectives: This study seeks to: 1) estimate meta-analytically the strength of the effects of various potential antecedents on risk perception across different hazards and 2) examine the role of potential moderators influencing these relationships. Theoretical background: Engaging the public is crucial to enhancing resilience to natural hazards, as it promotes self-protection. Risk perception is one of the main predictors of motivation for self-protective behavior (van Valkengoed & Steg, 2019). While extensive research has been conducted on risk perception, no quantitative synthesis of the existing literature is currently available. Research design/methodology/approach: A systematic review using a search string across databases (Scopus, Web of Science, PsycINFO) identified 121 bibliographic records (127 studies). The review adhered to PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. Results: Findings related to the first objective indicate that nineteen antecedents significantly impact natural hazard risk perception. These antecedents are categorized into three groups (Bonaiuto & Ariccio, 2020): 1) factors concerning the individual-risk relationship, 2) factors linked to the individual-community relationship, and 3) individual characteristics (e.g., sociodemographic and dispositional). Among these, the first category is the most frequent and includes the strongest effects (r ≥ .30). For moderators, the type of natural hazard and the risk level of the studied area were significant in some cases. Limitations: The study’s limitations include its focus on specific conceptualizations of risk perception, the limited representation of certain natural hazards (e.g., droughts, landslides), and insufficient research on some variables, emphasizing the need for broader and more diverse studies. Implications for research, practice and/or policy: Risk management strategies should prioritize the three categories of antecedents and account for relevant moderators to maximize public engagement and improve resilience across all phases of hazard management, including preparedness, response, and recovery.