Epidemic Impact of Temporary Large People Mass Fluxes: The COVID-19 and the Jubilee 2025 Reference Case

In the paper, the problem of the interaction between two separated population is considered when an infectious disease is presented. An asymmetric behaviour is studied, with one smaller population receiving a people flow from a second more numerous one. For each of them, the different conditions with respect to the epidemic status are considered as well as different numbers of flowing individuals. The reference case in mind is the possible COVID-19 epidemic during the next Jubilee 2025, where a very large amount of pilgrims are expected to come in Italy and, mainly, in Rome, with numbers comparable with the usual living population. A theorical study about the effects on the equilibria conditions, completed with a numerical analysis of different possible scenarios, is reported in the paper, showing that it must be expected a sensible increment of the number of infected individuals.