This research presents an innovative approach and methodology to conflict susceptibility mapping by integrating machine learning technologies with geospatial data analysis. Utilizing public datasets from Somalia, the study experiments with applying machine learning models such as random forest classifier, support vector machine classifier, and gradient boosting classifier models to predict areas susceptible to conflict. The methodology includes data preprocessing, model training, execution, and validation, employing various software and machine learning techniques. The random forest classifier emerged as the most accurate model through experiments with the machine learning models, demonstrating the potential of using machine learning to enhance our understanding of conflict dynamics. The study highlights the critical role of selecting appropriate conditioning factors and the need to continuously refine methodologies to improve prediction accuracy. By providing a practical method for conflict susceptibility mapping, this research contributes to the broader field of peace and security research, which directly contributes to Sustainable Development Goal 16 and explores the potential of using machine learning to support peace, justice, and strong institutions, and contribute to global peace and security.

Conflict susceptibility mapping methodology and data experiments / Obukhov, Timur; Brovelli, Maria A.. - In: ITU JOURNAL. - ISSN 2616-8375. - 6:1(2025), pp. 29-46. [10.52953/RZQX8627]

Conflict susceptibility mapping methodology and data experiments

Obukhov, Timur
Primo
Conceptualization
;
Brovelli, Maria A.
Secondo
Methodology
2025

Abstract

This research presents an innovative approach and methodology to conflict susceptibility mapping by integrating machine learning technologies with geospatial data analysis. Utilizing public datasets from Somalia, the study experiments with applying machine learning models such as random forest classifier, support vector machine classifier, and gradient boosting classifier models to predict areas susceptible to conflict. The methodology includes data preprocessing, model training, execution, and validation, employing various software and machine learning techniques. The random forest classifier emerged as the most accurate model through experiments with the machine learning models, demonstrating the potential of using machine learning to enhance our understanding of conflict dynamics. The study highlights the critical role of selecting appropriate conditioning factors and the need to continuously refine methodologies to improve prediction accuracy. By providing a practical method for conflict susceptibility mapping, this research contributes to the broader field of peace and security research, which directly contributes to Sustainable Development Goal 16 and explores the potential of using machine learning to support peace, justice, and strong institutions, and contribute to global peace and security.
2025
Conditioning factors; conflict analysis; conflict susceptibility mapping; machine learning,; SDG 16
01 Pubblicazione su rivista::01a Articolo in rivista
Conflict susceptibility mapping methodology and data experiments / Obukhov, Timur; Brovelli, Maria A.. - In: ITU JOURNAL. - ISSN 2616-8375. - 6:1(2025), pp. 29-46. [10.52953/RZQX8627]
File allegati a questo prodotto
File Dimensione Formato  
Obukhov_Conflict-susceptibility_2025.pdf

accesso aperto

Note: DOI : https://doi.org/10.52953/RZQX8627
Tipologia: Versione editoriale (versione pubblicata con il layout dell'editore)
Licenza: Creative commons
Dimensione 902.02 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
902.02 kB Adobe PDF

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11573/1735820
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus ND
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? ND
social impact