Mapping opportunities for floating urban development along Italian waterfronts

In Italy, the number of people living in coastal areas reaches 70% of the total population. By the end of the century, the sea level rise estimated along Italian coasts is between 1.31 and 1.45 m on a non-conservative basis. Considering its high vulnerability to rising sea levels and flooding, Italy holds a strong potential for floating urban development due to its extensive coastline and inland hydrographic network. The main drivers of floating urban development include these increasing threats posed to waterfront communities and the shortage of land for urban expansion, food production, and energy harvesting. However, not all waterfront areas are suitable for accommodating urban development on water because of site-specific urban, social, cultural, infrastructural, climate, and hydrographic features. This paper presents the results of a geospatial analysis carried out using geographic information systems and a statistical analysis of instrumental measurements to map the most suitable regions for floating urban expansion along Italian waterfronts. The mapping identifies six potential zones of interest marked by the co-existence of environmental and socio-urban needs. This study reveals how coastal–riverine interface zones are generally more susceptible to the cumulative effects of climate change and, at the same time, are centers of intense economic, cultural, and social activity.