Risk assessment for a suborbital flight operation

Recent years have seen a continuous growth of suborbital flight operations, driven by increasing private investment and the emergence of space tourism. Accordingly, a proper risk management approaches should be in place. This paper presents a risk assessment methodology tailored for suborbital flight operations, specifically addressing the potential impact area of spacecraft debris following an in-flight explosion. The study considers a hypothetical suborbital trajectory of a spacecraft, characterized by 70 equidistant control points where the explosion is supposed to occur. The assumed explosion is expected to result in the complete disintegration of the spacecraft, producing debris of simple geometric shape (i.e., spheres, cylinders and plates). These debris trajectories are modeled using ballistic and planar fall trajectories, as well as accounting for aerodynamic forces and wind effects. Through a series of Monte Carlo simulations involving 100 debris divided into varying percentages among the three debris shapes, the study aims to identify the combination that leads to the largest ground impact area. This value is then used to calculate the overall area at risk conservatively.