A spatial analysis on heterogenous determinant of dengue fever cases in Indonesia

The high prevalence of dengue fever continues to be a significant issue in Indonesia. This study examines dengue fever cases in Indonesia through a spatio-temporal lens, utilizing panel data from 2017 to 2022 across 34 provinces. The analysis inte- grates multiple explanatory factors to assess their influence on dengue incidence. The findings indicate that higher population density, improved access to sanitation, and increased GDP per capita are all associated with elevated dengue fever cases. The study further explores the varying effects of the Gini ratio and government health expenditure on dengue incidence, revealing significant regional disparities. Notably, meteorological factors, particularly humidity, play a substantial role in dengue transmission nationwide. Population density exacerbates dengue incidence, particularly in the densely populated eastern regions. Improved sanitation access is positively linked to dengue cases, suggesting that inadequate maintenance of sanitation infrastructure may create mosquito breeding sites. Additionally, higher GDP per capita is associated with increased dengue infections, implying that greater economic development can facilitate higher population mobility and, thereby increasing risk of transmission. The Gini ratio and government health spending exhibit varying impacts on dengue incidence. In general, the Gini ratio correlates positively correlated with dengue risks, but shows an inverse relationship in Papua and West Papua, indicating that dengue transmission is not exclusively confined to low socioeconomic regions. Public health expenditure is effective in reducing dengue cases in certain regions but is less impactful in others, underscoring the importance of efficient resource allocation and governance. Finally, meteorological factors, notably higher temperatures, correlate with higher dengue incidence, while heavy rainfall can disrupt mosquito breeding, leading to a reduction in cases.