Budapest e il terzo riflusso autoritario

Speaking about the third wave of democratisation, two decades ago, Larry Diamond (2002) noted «the unprecedented growth in the number of regimes that are neither clearly democratic nor conventionally authoritarian». After Diamond’s work, the literature investigating an halt or even a reversal in the democratisation processes after the early 1990s has also grown rapidly (Jenne and Mudde 2012; Kornai 2015). During the 1990s and 2000s, Hungary was perceived as an example of successful democratisation in Central Europe for almost two decades. Between 2010 and 2022, however, the premiership of Victor Orban radically changed this perception and the country became an example of populism, illiberalism and a drift towards authoritarian government. It is not only Hungary’s turnaround that is perceived as surprising by democratisation scholars, but also – and above all – the solidity of the changes brought about by the Orban regime. Indeed, the speed, degree and scope of the changes realised during the FIDESZ leader’s tenure affected all three dimensions of politics, polity and policy. Taking the framework of competitive authoritarianism (CAR) from S. Levitsky and L. A. Way, this study aims to test its applicability to contemporary Hungary (2010-2022). In this perspective, the case of the regime instituted by V. Orban represents a useful element of verification of the literature on the categorisation of hybrid regimes, and in particular of competitive authoritarianisms. The expected results of this research highlight the need to revive the debate on regime change and the necessary recognition of the autonomy gained by this particular type of regime, which can no longer be described as ‘transitory’. Furthermore, in the conclusions, Orban’s Hungary will be proposed as a key to interpreting the recent transformations that the processes of democratisation (and the processes of autocratization) are undergoing.