Past and recent drivers of extinction risk in endemic New Zealand birds

Land-cover change is a major driver of species extinction risk and the overarching loss of biodiversity. However, the impact of such change is nuanced, varying among species due to the mediation of life-history traits and the timing of land transformation. While diverse studies have pinpointed ecological and life-history attributes linked to the decline of bird species, the combined effects of past and recent land-cover change often present a complex picture. In this study, we undertook a modelling approach to assess extinction risk in New Zealand's endemic birds based on life-history traits and past (1996-2008) and recent (2008-2018) land-cover change. Our results suggested specific variables driving extinction risk in endemic New Zealand birds. Notably, incubation length emerged as the most influential factor, trailed by past land-cover change, body size and clutch size. This indicates that past land-cover change in combination with large body sizes and slow life histories, characterized by low fecundity and extended incubation periods, collectively elevates the extinction risk of endemic birds in New Zealand. These results shed light on the conservation priorities for species with specific biological traits potentially exposed to the negative effects of land-cover change.