“Whoever reads my account will not believe it”. On the misfortune of Baghdad

In spite of an auspicious horoscope made by the best astrologers of al-Manṣūr at the time of its foundation, Baghdad undoubtedly had an unfortunate destiny. This paper will compare the narrative strategies employed by classical Muslim historiography (from al-Kindī to al-Ṭabarī to Ibn al-Athīr, passing through Ibn Khaldūn and concluding with Ibn al-Ṭiqṭaqā) to describe this misfortune – from the civil war between al-Ma᾽mūn and al-Amīn (197/812-813) up to the destruction by the Mongols (655/1258) – implementing over time the idea of catastrophe as a category of historical discourse.