Insomnia symptoms as long-term predictors of anxiety symptoms in middle-aged and older adults from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), and the role of systemic inflammation

Insomnia, i.e., difficulties in sleep onset and sleep maintenance, may increase the risk of anxiety symptoms, although long-term follow-up studies are rarely reported. Here, we examined whether insomnia symptoms may predict anxiety symptoms in a 9-year follow-up, and whether inflammation may play a mediating role. Data from 1355 participants (63.44±7.47 years, 55.1% females) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) were analysed. Insomnia symptoms were assessed in 2012/13. High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), a marker of systemic inflammation, was measured in 2016/17. Anxiety symptoms were assessed in 2020/21. After adjusting for confounders and baseline levels, structural equation modelling (SEM) revealed that insomnia symptoms significantly predicted anxiety symptoms (β = 0.357, p < .001) but not hs-CRP (β = -0.016, p = .634). Similarly, hs-CRP was not related to anxiety symptoms (β = -0.024, p = .453). The hs-CRP mediation hypothesis was therefore rejected (β = 0.0004; 95% BCI -0.001 to 0.005), and multi-group SEM showed that sex did not moderate these paths. However, baseline diagnoses of anxiety disorders prospectively predicted higher hs-CRP (B = 0.083, p = .030). Results of the current study suggest that individuals with baseline anxiety disorders may be at higher risk of developing low-grade chronic inflammation. Several alternative psychophysiological mechanisms linking insomnia and anxiety symptoms should be explored, including autonomic and cortical pre-sleep arousal, cortisol reactivity, and pro-inflammatory cytokines. Finally, insomnia symptoms may be a treatment target to lower the risk of anxiety symptoms in elderly