Effects of Orbit Raising and Deorbiting in Source-Sink Evolutionary Models

The sustainability of the low-Earth-orbit (LEO) environment is threatened by the growing number of anthropogenic space objects planned to be launched in the coming years. This paper investigates the evolution of objects residing in LEO through the MIT Orbital Capacity Assessment Tool (MOCAT), an evolutionary multishell, multispecies source-sink model. The proposed novelty considers the flow of objects crossing multiple shells during orbit raising and deorbiting maneuvers, modeled through the secular variation of the semimajor axis under a low-thrust continuous applied control. To this aim, a higher-fidelity MOCAT version, including active satellites, derelicts, debris, and rocket bodies, has been developed and used. The results demonstrate that incorporating orbit transfer fluxes into the model results in a higher number of collisions, which leads to a greater quantity of debris and poses a greater threat to the safety of LEO.