Carrying Capacity of Low Earth Orbit Computed Using Source-Sink Models

The low-Earth-orbit (LEO) environment will likely experience an exponential growth of the anthropogenic space object population, also due to the many proposed large constellations, which could negatively affect the sustainability of the space environment if no proper regulatory actions are introduced. This paper introduces a methodology to analyze high-capacity sustainable solutions of the LEO region from 200 to 900 km altitude. Sustainability is assessed through the stable equilibrium points of a source-sink model called MIT Orbital Capacity Assessment Tool 3 (MOCAT-3). Capacity is estimated using an optimization procedure that aims to compute the optimal launch rate that maximizes the number of satellites in LEO, subject to a risk-rate constraint. Results show that the sustainable number of satellites increases with the risk rate constraint. Moreover, the resilience of the proposed solutions is tested against a more accurate time-varying atmospheric density model and perturbations of the initial equilibrium population. The compatibility of the proposed solutions with future traffic launches and a strategy to accommodate future traffic needs are presented. Limitations of the current work are discussed, chiefly the importance of validation of model coefficients and behavior before resulting capacity estimates are used to guide actual decision-making.