Non predicted trajectories: educational choices over the reproduction of predicted path

The sociological literature, encompassing both theoretical and empirical perspectives, has extensively examined educational inequalities and the mechanisms responsible for their production and perpetuation. Numerous studies, both qualitative and quantitative, macro and micro in nature, have explored these processes. However, there is a scarcity of research focusing on instances where, under specific conditions, the reproduction of these inequalities does not occur. This paper aims to investigate postgraduate choices and determine the extent to which students deviate from social reproduction processes based on their social origin. Utilizing data from a comprehensive survey conducted in the Lazio region from March to May 2023 among students concluding their upper secondary education, our analysis initially explores the number of students who depart from reproduction trajectories outlined in the literature, commonly referred to as “resilient students” in performance analysis (OECD, 2011). Subsequently, we estimate the proportion of low-class students pursuing university education, acknowledging that such students typically exhibit reduced continuation rates compared to their high social class counterparts (Snee, Devine, 2014; Romito, 2021a). It is crucial to consider that the chosen upper secondary school track significantly influenced this transition (Ballarino, Panichella, 2014). This observation contributes to the discussion of maximally maintained inequality (Raftery, Hout, 1993), positing that upper-class students dominate higher education transitions, saturating lower levels and limiting access for lower classes. This analysis is also extended to students with migratory backgrounds. Once groups of cases breaking the chain effect of social reproduction are identified, we characterize them based on gender, school performance, attitudes, and school experiences, aiming to surpass the relative risk aversion approach (Breen, Goldthorpe, 1997; Barone et al., 2021). The underlying hypothesis is that paths of upward educational mobility are influenced less by school and institutional factors and more by individual motivational and performance variables (Van de Werfhost, Hofstede, 2007). The paper reconstructs the chain linking social origin, school track choice, performance, and postgraduate destinations for these students (Giancola, Salmieri, 2022). These destinations are strongly influenced by the mentioned factors, and, in the case of tertiary education, the chosen disciplinary field of study is also affected by these and other factors (Giancola et al., 2023). In defining social origin, we use a summary measure of the employment and educational backgrounds of students’ parents. Additionally, we include the presence of siblings who have undertaken or completed university studies as a control variable, commonly referred to as “first-generation students” in the literature (Romito, 2021b). In summary, the goal is to elucidate both the dynamics of reproducing inequalities in educational expectations and the processes of upward educational mobility, along with the underlying causes.