Reading Spykman in Beijing. Can the Rimland theory question the Belt and Road Initiative?

This article tests Nicholas J. Spykman’s rimland theory relevance to better frame the logic of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This tests eems particularly appropriate since the BRI runs along the rimland geographical layout. A critique of the rimland theory emphasizing the importance of mixing realist and cultural elements is offered to question to what extent a framework that was coined between 1930s and 1940s to elucidate political dynamics affecting the most populated and resource rich areas on Earth remains relevant to interpret BRI’s logic and strategic posture. The rimland theory is employed to answer general questions regarding the Chinese project, and especially its attitude in the area and its potential ambitions to dominate it. The article also retraces trends aroused by the centrifugal and centripetal force released by China as an emerging power, assuming that other powers cannot remain indifferent to China-led changes, and that these evolutions inevitably trigger newforms of containment and alignment. Its final goal is to identify, if any, merits and limits of Spykman’s best-known scholarly work to be associatedto the BRI. From a methodological perspective, the article offers a review of the existing literature on the BRI, taking into consideration both Chinese and non-Chinese authors so as to identify strengths and weaknesses of alternative approaches. The hermeneutic contribution of the Spykmanian paradigm is then associated to BRI logics and dynamics. Limitations linked to the use of classical geopolitics to interpret China are also emphasized.