A Transient Stochastic Rainfall Generator for Climate Changes Analysis at Hydrological Scales in Central Italy

In this work, a comprehensive methodology for trend investigation in rainfall time series, in a climate-change context, is proposed. The crucial role played by a Stochastic Rainfall Generator (SRG) is highlighted. Indeed, SRG application is particularly suitable to obtain rainfall series that are representative of future rainfall series at hydrological scales. Moreover, the methodology investigates the climate change eects on several timescales, considering the well-known Mann–Kendall test and analyzing the variation of probability distributions of extremes and hazard. The hypothesis is that the eects of climate changes could be more evident only for specific time resolutions, and only for some considered aspects. Applications regarded the rainfall time series of the Viterbo rain gauge in Central Italy.