This paper investigates whether and to what extent multiple encompassing tests may help determine weights for forecast averaging in a standard vector autoregressive setting. To this end we consider a new test-based procedure, which assigns non-zero weights to candidate models that add information not covered by other models. The potential benefits of this procedure are explored in extensive Monte Carlo simulations using realistic designs that are adapted to UK and to French macroeconomic data, to which trivariate vector autoregressions (VAR) are fitted. Thus simulations rely on potential data-generating mechanisms for macroeconomic data rather than on simple but artificial designs. We run two types of forecast ‘competitions’. In the first one, one of the model classes is the trivariate VAR, such that it contains the generating mechanism. In the second specification, none of the competing models contains the true structure. The simulation results show that the performance of test-based averaging is comparable to uniform weighting of individual models. In one of our role model economies, test-based averaging achieves advantages in small samples. In larger samples, pure prediction models outperform forecast averages.

Combining forecasts based on multiple encompassing tests in a macroeconomic core system / Costantini, M; Kunst, R. - In: JOURNAL OF FORECASTING. - ISSN 0277-6693. - 30:(2011), pp. 579-596. [10.1002/for.1190]

Combining forecasts based on multiple encompassing tests in a macroeconomic core system

COSTANTINI M;
2011

Abstract

This paper investigates whether and to what extent multiple encompassing tests may help determine weights for forecast averaging in a standard vector autoregressive setting. To this end we consider a new test-based procedure, which assigns non-zero weights to candidate models that add information not covered by other models. The potential benefits of this procedure are explored in extensive Monte Carlo simulations using realistic designs that are adapted to UK and to French macroeconomic data, to which trivariate vector autoregressions (VAR) are fitted. Thus simulations rely on potential data-generating mechanisms for macroeconomic data rather than on simple but artificial designs. We run two types of forecast ‘competitions’. In the first one, one of the model classes is the trivariate VAR, such that it contains the generating mechanism. In the second specification, none of the competing models contains the true structure. The simulation results show that the performance of test-based averaging is comparable to uniform weighting of individual models. In one of our role model economies, test-based averaging achieves advantages in small samples. In larger samples, pure prediction models outperform forecast averages.
2011
combining forecasts; encompassing tests; model selection; time series
01 Pubblicazione su rivista::01a Articolo in rivista
Combining forecasts based on multiple encompassing tests in a macroeconomic core system / Costantini, M; Kunst, R. - In: JOURNAL OF FORECASTING. - ISSN 0277-6693. - 30:(2011), pp. 579-596. [10.1002/for.1190]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11573/1704432
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