Beyond the emergency: characteristics and behaviour of refugees and asylum seekers in Italy

In the last decade, Italy has been affected by significant flows of migration for humanitarian reasons. According to the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) more than 500,000 people have sought asylum in Italy since 2014 (the year of the first humanitarian crisis in the Mediterranean). In 2021, there were almost 31,000 new permits for reasons related to international protection. Most of the new documents were granted to Pakistani nationals (6,090), followed at a distance by Bangladeshis (nearly 5,000) and Nigerians (3,057). Incoming flows are clearly recovering (+129%) compared to the previous year, a period affected by the pandemic. Contrary to earlier understanding, some of people arriving for humanitarian reasons are not temporarily passing through the country but remain for many years. Refugees and asylum seekers have special characteristics that distinguish them from the other migrants. The aim of the paper is to present a descriptive analysis of the inflows and the stocks of asylum seekers and refugees during the last decade. The study is based on the data of residence permits. This dataset highlights the dynamics that have affected these particular flows of migrants. In the first part, our paper focuses on the characteristics of migrants and their territorial distribution in Italy. In the second part the authors analyze, applying record linkage techniques and regression models, the likelihood that asylum seekers remain in Italy and study the factors that affect the choice to stay.