Probability analysis of rock slope using FORM based on a nonlinear strength criterion

Various uncertainties are frequently encountered in the assessment of landslide stability. However, the uncertainty of parameters in the Mohr–Coulomb strength criterion is a major concern in the studies, neglecting the uncertainty related to the strength criterion itself that is used to describe the strength of geotechnical materials. To assess the reliability of landslides, a new probabilistic analysis method is proposed in this study. According to the traditional limit equilibrium framework, an improved method based on a nonlinear strength criterion is deduced to determine the safety factor of landslides. The local mean value of the random variables on the failure surface is estimated by the analytical method, avoiding random field simulation. The first-order reliability method (FORM) is applied to estimate the failure probability of landslides. An example is analyzed using the proposed probability analysis method, and its effectiveness is primarily verified. The results show that the traditional limit equilibrium method based on the linear Mohr–Coulomb strength criterion estimates the stability and failure probability of landslides inaccurately.