Suburban fertility and the role of local contexts in a Mediterranean country: A spatial exercise

Assuming spatial fertility as contextual to the development stage of a given region, this study formulates an interpretative framework integrating small-scale fertility variations with metropolitan cycles and economic downturns. Using spatial econometrics, spatial trends in a gross fertility rate were investigated along a sequence of economic expansions and recessions, distinguishing urban, suburban, and rural settlements in 51 Greek prefectures. Suburban fertility overpassed urban fertility, being in turn higher than rural fertility in several prefectures. Urban fertility was higher with economic expansion and declined with recession. The reverse pattern was observed for suburban fertility – increasing with crisis and assuming a greater spatial heterogeneity. By documenting a differential response of fertility to economic downturns and metropolitan cycles, our work suggests that spatial fertility divides are temporary outcomes of a specific ensemble of socioeconomic forces underlying regional growth.