Vaccination policy and mortality from COVID-19 in the European Union

This paper estimates the dynamic effect of vaccination on mortality from COVID-19 using weekly data from 26 European Union countries during 2021. Our analysis relies on the double machine learning method to control for multiple confounders, including nonpharmaceutical interventions, climate variables, mobility factors, variants of concern, country- and week-specific shocks. In our baseline specification, we show that a 10-pp. increase in cumulative doses per 100 inhabitants averts 5.08 COVID-19 deaths per million inhabitants at the 8-week horizon and 26.41 deaths in the 8-week time window considered. The average reduction in mortality in this window is close to 50%. Further estimates reveal that the effect of doses administered to adults aged 18-59 does not statistically differ from that of doses received by people aged 60+. Finally, vaccine-specific estimates document that mRNA-1273 (Moderna) and Vaxzevria (AstraZeneca) are more cost-effective in saving lives than Comirnaty (Pfizer), while we are unable to demonstrate any effect of Ad26.COV2.S (J&J).