The role of patient-and treatment-related factors and early functional imaging in late radiation-induced xerostomia in oropharyngeal cancer patients

The advent of quantitative imaging in personalized radiotherapy (RT) has offered the opportunity for a better understanding of individual variations in intrinsic radiosensitivity. We aimed to assess the role of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) biomarkers, patient-related factors, and treatment-related factors in predicting xerostomia 12 months after RT (XER12 ) in patients affected by oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Patients with locally advanced OSCC underwent diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and dynamic-contrast enhanced MRI at baseline; DWI was repeated at the 10th fraction of RT. The Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) toxicity scale was used to evaluate salivary gland toxicity. Xerostomia-related questionnaires (XQs) were administered weekly during and after RT. RTOG toxicity ≥ grade 2 at XER12 was considered as endpoint to build prediction models. A Decision Tree classification learner was applied to build the prediction models following a five-fold cross-validation. Of the 89 patients enrolled, 63 were eligible for analysis. Thirty-six (57.1%) and 21 (33.3%) patients developed grade 1 and grade 2 XER12, respectively. Including only baseline variables, the model based on DCE-MRI and V65 (%) (volume of both glands receiving doses ≥ 65 Gy) had a fair accuracy (77%, 95% CI: 66.5–85.4%). The model based on V65 (%) and XQ-Intmid (integral of acute XQ scores from the start to the middle of RT) reached the best accuracy (81%, 95% CI: 71–88.7%). In conclusion, non-invasive biomarkers from DCE-MRI, in combination with dosimetric variables and self-assessed acute XQ scores during treatment may help predict grade 2 XER12 with a fair to good accuracy.