How national decarbonisation scenarios can affect building refurbishment strategies

Energy transition is radically changing national energy systems. Nevertheless, the dynamics of this transformation are not considered by end-users in the design of building systems. The present work aims at assessing how the renewable share increase, in both electricity and gas grids, can affect building energy performance. To do this, building energy performance indicators, taking into account growing renewable shares, have been proposed. Four national decarbonisation scenarios have been considered. In a case-study in Italy, conventional boilers, heat pumps, combined heat and power plants and hybrid systems have been analysed. Heat pumps turn out to be the best option if the renewable penetration in the power grid is higher than 40%. The substitute natural gas deployment can increase the competitiveness of cogeneration systems, but not enough to represent the best configuration. National decarbonisation scenarios significantly affect the primary energy and emissions savings of building refurbishment strategies. Conventional indicators, taking primary energy factors as fixed, lead to correct assessment for the reference year, but are unable to describe the actual building energy performance over the system lifetime. Depending on the scenario, the average specific primary energy consumption ranges in 17% and 55% lower than the one assessed with conventional analyses.