Spatial non-stationarity in the determinants of land use in Campania (southern Italy) based on the GWR model

The progressive urban conversion of natural land in artificial areas is one of the main concerns in recent years as it has serious implications for the environment in terms of damage to ecosystems and for the social and economic well-being of a community. The problem of land transformation is particularly felt in Italy where land use patterns show a high level of territorial heterogeneity. This research aims to investigate spatial non-stationarity in the determinants of land use in Campania (southern Italy). Campania is an interesting case study for three main reasons: i) it is the third region for land use in Italy and the first in southern Italy; ii) it is the most populous region in southern Italy and the most densely populated in Italy; iii) it is characterised by a complex and varied morphological structure due to the presence of the Somma-Vesuvius volcanic massif. We perform Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to manage spatial non-stationarity and to provide a model that better describes the data structure. The data are taken from official sources (Ispra, Istat, SIEPI) for 2016 on all 550 Campanian municipalities. The results show the crucial role of the geomorphological, demographic, socio-economic and institutional characteristics in determin ing land use patterns. Spatial non-stationarity shows that land use in Campania is characterised by territorial asymmetries with the presence of areas whose land use is not aligned with the real needs of the territory. The findings suggest that: i) monitoring and use changes is the prerequisite for preserving environmental quality and ecosystem services; ii) better local institutions are needed to guide territorial planning in support of sustainable land management; iii) broader administrative planning can strengthen land management by sharing responsibility among an adequate number of local authorities.