Mixed Land Use as an Intrinsic Feature of Sprawl: A Short-Term Analysis of Settlement Growth and Population Distribution Using European Urban Atlas

This study investigates the land-use/population mix over time as the base to derive an indicator of urban sprawl. Land-use individual patches (provided by Urban Atlas, hereafter UA, with a detailed spatial geometry at 1:10,000 scale) were associated with the total (resident) population based on official statistics (census enumeration districts and other public data sources), providing a comprehensive mapping of the spatial distribution of population density by land-use class in a representative case study for the Mediterranean region (metropolitan Athens, Greece). Data analysis adopted a mix of statistical techniques, such as descriptive statistics, non-parametric curve interpolation (smoothing splines), and exploratory multivariate statistics, namely hierarchical clustering, non-metric multi-dimensional scaling and confirmative factor analysis. The results of this study indicate a non-linear gradient of density decline from downtown (dominated by compact settlements) to peripheral locations (dominated by natural land). Population density in agricultural land was locally high and increasing over time; this result suggests how mixed land use may be the base of intense sprawl in large metropolitan regions. The methodology implemented in this study can be generalized over the whole sample of European cities included in Urban Atlas, providing a semi-automatic assessment of exurban development and population re-distribution over larger metropolitan regions.