The feeling that an imagined event will or will not occur in the future – referred to as belief in future occurrence – plays a key role in guiding our decisions and actions. Recent research suggests that this belief may increase with repeated simulation of future events, but the boundary conditions for this efect remain unclear. Considering the key role of autobiographical knowledge in shaping belief in occurrence, we suggest that the efect of repeated simulation only occurs when prior autobiographical knowledge does not clearly support or contradict the occurrence of the imagined event. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the repetition efect for events that were either plausible or implausible due to their coherence or incoherence with autobiographical knowledge (Experiment 1), and for events that initially appeared uncertain because they were not clearly supported or contradicted by autobiographical knowledge (Experiment 2). We found that all types of events became more detailed and took less time to construct after repeated simulation, but belief in their future occurrence increased only for uncertain events; repetition did not infuence belief for events already believed or considered implausible. These fndings show that the efect of repeated simulation on belief in future occurrence depends on the consistency of imagined events with autobiographical knowledge.
Repeated simulation increases belief in the future occurrence of uncertain events / Mazzoni, Giuliana. - In: MEMORY & COGNITION. - ISSN 0090-502X. - (2023). [10.3758/s13421-023-01414-6]
Repeated simulation increases belief in the future occurrence of uncertain events
Giuliana MazzoniSecondo
Conceptualization
2023
Abstract
The feeling that an imagined event will or will not occur in the future – referred to as belief in future occurrence – plays a key role in guiding our decisions and actions. Recent research suggests that this belief may increase with repeated simulation of future events, but the boundary conditions for this efect remain unclear. Considering the key role of autobiographical knowledge in shaping belief in occurrence, we suggest that the efect of repeated simulation only occurs when prior autobiographical knowledge does not clearly support or contradict the occurrence of the imagined event. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the repetition efect for events that were either plausible or implausible due to their coherence or incoherence with autobiographical knowledge (Experiment 1), and for events that initially appeared uncertain because they were not clearly supported or contradicted by autobiographical knowledge (Experiment 2). We found that all types of events became more detailed and took less time to construct after repeated simulation, but belief in their future occurrence increased only for uncertain events; repetition did not infuence belief for events already believed or considered implausible. These fndings show that the efect of repeated simulation on belief in future occurrence depends on the consistency of imagined events with autobiographical knowledge.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.