Mono-centrism as a Destiny? An Econometric Test of Urban Models Using Building Activity

The present study introduces an econometric test of mono-centric urban development using spatially explicit building activity data between 1981 and 2020 in metropolitan Athens (Greece), one of the most characteristic mono-centric regions in Europe. Diverging intensity and spatial direction of building activity over time allow identification of distinctive paths of urban expansion. More specifically, the results of generalized global models and geographically weighted local regressions delineated sequential waves of growth; regression coefficients proved to be appropriate indicators of mono-centric development, allowing for a diachronic inference on changing spatial structures. While reflecting a preference’s shift from ‘compact-dense’ to ‘discontinuous-dispersed’ settlements, exurban development exerted an insignificant impact on urban functions, remaining mono-centrically distributed around Athens. Structural and functional peculiarities of such development patterns should be considered when designing policies that regulate urban dispersion and contain land consumption in Southern Europe.