Framing socioecological complexity: The long-term evolution of multiple dimensions of desertification risk in Italy

Desertification risk depends on the interplay of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, among which climate change, soil depletion, landscape modifications, and biodiversity decline are key factors of change in Southern Europe. The present study introduces a diachronic analysis of desertification risk in Italy adopting a multidimensional approach based on four dimensions (ecological, economic, demographic, and administrative) assessed at three dates (1961, 1991, and 2011). These risk components were evaluated separately in Southern Italy, a formerly affected region (sensu United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification), and Northern/Central Italy, a nonaffected region in the country. All risk measures document how the divide between affected and nonaffected regions in Italy has gradually reduced. Because of local warming and rising human pressure, Northern Italy has recently displayed a level of desertification risk close to those observed in Southern Italy over the last 30 years. These results suggest a thorough revision of the national classification of risky areas, that may inform more specific mitigation and adaptation policies responding effectively to recent socioenvironmental trends and local (economic) dynamics. The intrinsic system's evolution observed at both regional and national level in Italy may be generalized to a broader European context. Our work finally documents the appropriateness of a multidimensional definition of desertification risk grounded on the joint analysis of ecological, demographic, economic, and administrative indicators. A comprehensive knowledge of socioeconomic patterns and processes of change contributes to more precise scenario modeling and design of integrated strategies mitigating desertification risk.