Effects of climate change on the distribution of Fusarium spp. in Italy

This work studies the incidence of Fusarium spp. on wheat kernels about current and future climatic scenarios (CSs) in Italy. Epidemiological analyses were performed from 2007 to 2013 and the dataset was used for correlations between the disease incidence of five Fusarium species monitored in Italy (Fusarium graminearum, F. langsethiae, F. sporotrichioides, F. poae and F. avenaceum) and climatic and geographical parameters. Probabilistic-based modelling of the actual distribution of Fusarium spp. was achieved by using the Zero-inflated Poisson regression. The probabilistic geographical distribution of the Fusarium species was assessed by applying future CSs (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). The shift from current to future CSs highlighted changes on a national and regional scale. The tightening of environmental conditions from the RCP4.5 to 8.5 resulted in a sporadic presence of F. avenaceum only in the northern Italy. F. graminearum was plentifully present in the current climate, but the tightening of minimum and maximum temperatures and the decrease of precipitation between May-June in the RCP8.5 no longer represents the optimum conditions for it. F. langsethiae was currently distributed in all of Italy, increasing in the probability of detecting it from high to low latitudes and from low to high longitudes under the RCP8.5. F. poae grows and develops in arid climatic conditions. Under the CSs, it showed high incidence probabilities in the southeast and northeast areas of Italy. F. sporotrichioides is scarcely present in Italy, found at high latitudes and in the central areas. Climate change (CC) altered this distribution, and the chances of discovering it increased significantly moving to southern Italy. Overall, the study shows that CC is likely to lead to an increase in the incidence of Fusarium species on Italian wheat, highlighting the importance of strategies to mitigate the effects of CC on wheat production, quality, and safety.