Predictive value of the adjusted global anti-phospholipida syndrome score on clinical recurrence in APS patients. A longitudinal study

Objective: To assess the effect of the average adjusted global APS score (aGAPSS) over time on recurrence of clinical manifestations in APS patients through a retrospective longitudinal study. Methods: The study included 200 patients with APS. The aGAPSS was calculated for each patient at baseline and on a yearly basis for either up to 6 years (minimum 3 years) or just before the clinical event in patients who experienced clinical recurrence. The mean score per patient was computed. In patients under vitamin K antagonists (VKA) the percentage of time spent within the therapeutic range (TTR) was calculated. Cox-regression analysis was performed to determine the cut-off value of the aGAPSS with the strongest association with clinical recurrence. Results: Higher average aGAPSS values were found in patients who experienced clinical recurrence in comparison to patients who did not [8.81 (95% C.I. 7.53-10.08) vs 6.38 (95% C.I. 5.64-7.12), p = 0.001], patients with thrombotic recurrence compared to patients with obstetric recurrence [9.48 (95% C.I. 8.14-10.82) vs 4.25 (95% C.I. 0.85-7.65), p = 0.006], and patients with arterial thrombosis compared to patients with venous thrombosis [10.66 (S.D. 5.48) vs 6.63 (S.D. 4.42), p = 0.01]. aGAPSS values > 13 points were associated with the highest risk of recurrence in multivariate analysis [HR = 3.25 (95% C.I. 1.93-5.45, p < 0.0001]. TTR was not statistically different between patients who had thrombosis recurrence and patients who had not. Conclusions: Our data support the role of periodic (annual) monitoring of the aGAPSS score in predicting clinical recurrence in patients with APS.