While the vaccination campaign against COVID-19 is having its positive impact, we retrospectively analyze the causal impact of some decisions made by the Italian government on the second outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Italy, when no vaccine was available. First, we analyze the causal impact of reopenings after the first lockdown in 2020. In addition, we also analyze the impact of reopening schools in September 2020. Our results provide an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the causal relationship between the relaxation of restrictions and the transmission in the community of a highly contagious respiratory virus that causes severe illness in the absence of prophylactic vaccination programs. We present a purely data-analytic approach based on a Bayesian methodology and discuss possible interpretations of the results obtained and implications for policy makers.

A dynamic causal modeling of the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy / Bilancia, Massimo; Vitale, Domenico; Manca, Fabio; Perchinunno, Paola; Santacroce, Luigi. - In: ASTA. ADVANCES IN STATISTICAL ANALYSIS. - ISSN 1863-818X. - (2023). [10.1007/s10182-023-00469-9]

A dynamic causal modeling of the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy

Domenico Vitale;
2023

Abstract

While the vaccination campaign against COVID-19 is having its positive impact, we retrospectively analyze the causal impact of some decisions made by the Italian government on the second outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Italy, when no vaccine was available. First, we analyze the causal impact of reopenings after the first lockdown in 2020. In addition, we also analyze the impact of reopening schools in September 2020. Our results provide an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the causal relationship between the relaxation of restrictions and the transmission in the community of a highly contagious respiratory virus that causes severe illness in the absence of prophylactic vaccination programs. We present a purely data-analytic approach based on a Bayesian methodology and discuss possible interpretations of the results obtained and implications for policy makers.
2023
covid-19; causal analysis; gaussian processes; state-space models; bayesian modeling; bayesian computations
01 Pubblicazione su rivista::01a Articolo in rivista
A dynamic causal modeling of the second outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy / Bilancia, Massimo; Vitale, Domenico; Manca, Fabio; Perchinunno, Paola; Santacroce, Luigi. - In: ASTA. ADVANCES IN STATISTICAL ANALYSIS. - ISSN 1863-818X. - (2023). [10.1007/s10182-023-00469-9]
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11573/1668425
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