The Evaluation in the Urban Projects Planning: A Logical-Deductive Model for the Definition of “Warning Areas” in the Esquilino District in the City of Rome (Italy)

With reference to the current focus on urban redevelopment issue, the evaluation of the projects plays a central role for the definition of effective urban development policies. In the present research, a logical-deductive model for the identification of “warning areas” is proposed. Given an urban area to be renovated, the developed methodological approach starts from the detection of the main existing architectural, historical and environmental emergencies in order to investigate the appreciation of the reference market for the higher or lower proximity to each considered urban pole. Thus, an econometric technique is implemented to examine the influence of each locational factor on selling prices, by assuming the property asset price increase as a proxy of the benefits generated by the urban redevelopment intervention for local communities. Furthermore, the proposed methodology is applied to the Esquilino district in the city of Rome (Italy), for which a relevant urge of urban regeneration is found, to orient the selection phases of the areas that need more attention from public entities.