Why Darwin's prediction matters

Abstract: Darwin’s prediction of a moth pollinating the orchid Angraecum sesquipe- dale has become exemplary of the predictive potential of the theory of evolution. However, both the predominant historical account and the epistemological analysis are vitiated by a falsificationist perspective, which over-emphasizes the role of risky predictions. The problems of this interpretation are accompanied by other historical and theoretical anomalies. In this paper, I will argue that different interpretative tools are necessary to rationalize the dynamics of the growth of knowledge produced by Darwin’s prediction. In particular, I will make a case for the recourse to pluralistic instrumental predictivism, as its application allows to reinterpret the epistemolog- ical profile of the case and to reconstruct a more pertinent history to the practical dynamics of scientific research.