Towards a dramatic reduction in the European natural gas consumption. Italy as a case study

In recent months, gas prices have reached unprecedented levels, hurting the European economy and exacerbating energy poverty conditions. This paper deals with investigating measures for a rapid reduction in the Italian natural gas (NG) consumption. The aim is to assess and quantify energy, economic, social and environmental impacts of different strategies to be implemented promptly. Several solutions, such as utility and residential PV systems, Wind plants, biomethane, green hydrogen and heat pumps, have been analysed. Different implementation levels of such solutions have been simulated in combination with each other by means of the MATLAB Toolbox for EnergyPLAN. The NG Abatement Cost (NGAC) has been calculated. That indicator allows an immediate evaluation of economic benefits comparing it with current and future NG spot prices and potential import alternatives. The NGAC of the best strategies is between 40 and 70 €/MWh depending on the amount of achieved savings. Less than 80 billion in total investment leads to a NG reduction of 75 TWh/year at an average abatement cost of about 70 €/MWh. That entails an employment impact of 640,000 temporary jobs and 30,000 permanent jobs along with an emission reduction of 21.5 MtCO2/year. Under the highest implementation of such measures, future average NG spot prices higher than 50 €/MWh allow to reduce GHG emissions implying decarbonisation costs lower than 80 €/tCO2. Furthermore, three Carbon Abatement Cost curves by changing the NG prices have been elaborated. The findings of this work show how current high NG prices can be an opportunity to speed up the transition process towards decarbonised energy systems.