Rising targets to 55% GHG emissions reduction. The smart energy systems approach for improving the Italian energy strategy

The EU Commission raised the GHG emissions reduction targets from 40% to at least 55% by 2030, By the “Fit for 55” package. Member States have to review their national energy and climate plans (NECPs) in a short-time. In order to elaborate guidelines for the Italian NECP improvement, a methodology based on the Smart Energy Systems (SES) approach has been proposed. The reference scenario has been modelled in EnergyPLAN. A Sectors’ Implementation Matrix, consisting of eight sectors and three implementation levels, has been developed and the configurations have been simulated by means of MAT4EnergyPLAN. The best scenario accomplishes the 55% emissions reduction targets along with a lowering in the annualised costs of Italian energy system. The RES capacity targets must be increased by further 33 GW for PV and 16.6 GW for WIND. High end-uses electrification degree represents the priority in the next decade, so as to easily and cost-effectively integrate the variable-RES. An integrated energy system and the sector coupling even take priority over the RES installation in order to minimise the energy system decarbonisation costs. Finally, the present work contributes to demonstrate the need for the SES approach in the planning of energy systems with large-scale RES integration.