Unravelling landslide risk: soil susceptibility, agro-forest systems and the socioeconomic profile of rural communities in Italy

Landslides are considered a form of physical soil degradation and are concentrated, especially in southern European countries, on inland and marginal rural areas. Low-density, economically disadvantaged and poorly accessible areas are assumed to share a high landslide occurrence probability. However, an empirical verification of this assumption is still lacking for Mediterranean countries. This study investigates the spatial relation between a composite index of landslide risk and more than 100 indicators at the municipal level in Italy – a country with high landslide risk – exploring multiple territorial dimensions (population dynamics and settlements, job market and human capital, economic specialization and competitiveness, quality of life, agriculture and rural development, territory and environment). We combine nonparametric correlation, principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering, to profile municipalities according to their levels of landslide risk. The high landslide risk in certain areas of Italy is related to specific socio-economic attributes (depopulation, ageing, tourism specialization, low density of economic activities, modest participation to the job market and crime intensity) and agro-environmental features (low-intensity cropping systems, natural landscapes and water resource availability).