Envisaging long-term urban dynamics: a spatially explicit analysis of local-scale population growth and natural balance

Metropolitan growth in advanced countries is the result of inherent transformations in morphology and functions, with emergence and consolidation of demographic processes widening the divide between urban and rural areas. The present study proposes an original analysis of urban expansion quantifying the contribution of natural and migration balance in total population growth rate under different transitional stages of a city life cycle (‘urbanization’, ‘suburbanization’, ‘counter-urbanization’, and ‘re-urbanization’). A spatially explicit approach based on Moran’s autocorrelation indexes and a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) supplemented a more traditional analysis of municipal-level census data and vital statistics assessing long-term population dynamics over a complete urban cycle in the Athens’ metropolitan region (Greece). Our work demonstrates that natural balance contributed significantly to population growth during ‘urbanization’ and ‘re-urbanization’ stages. Conversely, migration balance contributed more significantly to population growth during ‘suburbanization’ and ‘counter-urbanization’ stages. Results of this study re-contextualize metropolitan cycles within a more general debate on demographic transition.