Economic Expansion, Urban Mobility and the Mono-centric Model: A Multivariate Spatial Analysis of Commuting Patterns in a Metropolitan Region of Southern Europe

Empirical evidence has demonstrated that mono-centric models are undergoing a transformation towards low-density, scattered and polycentric structures all over Europe. However, because of the 1960s-1970s demographic boom, Mediterranean cities are probably the socioeconomic contexts where transition to dispersed spatial structures is more evident due to the presence of consolidated compact and dense urban forms representative of mono-centric structures and economic functions concentrated in central cities. With the aim to better understanding the latent socioeconomic structure of mono centric systems transitioning towards a more dispersed metropolitan configuration, a spatial framework providing a comprehensive outlook of commuting patterns in the Athens' Metropolitan Region (AMR), Greece, was proposed in this study. The analysis was run on commuting flows derived from the 2001 population census at spatial scale of municipalities using a mix of multivariate techniques that assess metropolitan hierarchy from central to more peripheral locations. Central locations, including inner cities of Athens and Piraeus, exhibit a balanced rate of residents-to-internal workers, attracting considerable workers' flows from neighbouring places. Employment sub-centres (resident population > 10,000 inhabitants) emerged as a response to the infrastructural development driven by the 2004 Olympic Games, featuring a particularly high concentration of workers commuting from neighbouring municipalities. Results of this analysis indicate the persistence of a bi-centric spatial structure gravitating on Athens and Piraeus, with early formation of employment sub-centres in more peripheral metropolitan districts and a moderate alteration of the mono-centric scheme in specific peri-urban areas because of sprawled expansion.