Density-dependent population growth in Southern Europe (1961–2011): A non-parametric approach using smoothing splines

A wealth of social, economic, historical, political, institutional, and cultural factors have been shown to affect the spatial distribution of resident populations, long-term settlement patterns, and demographic structures on the European continent. However, density-dependent mechanisms regulating population growth remain important drivers of socio-demographic dynamics at both the local and regional levels. In Southern Europe, a paradigmatic region with quite homogeneous population dynamics and urban structures, high within-country variability in the spatial distribution of the resident population and across-country differences in population density outline the distinctive demographic patterns at a regional level. A comparative analysis of the spatial distribution of the resident populations of three representative countries of Southern Europe (Spain, Italy, and Greece) contributes to identifying latent trends and density-dependent mechanisms of population growth over a relatively long time period (1961–2011) at the geographic level of local administrative units (LAUs). An explicit analysis of density-dependent spatial patterns of population growth permits a refined comprehension of socioeconomic mechanisms underlying demographic divides. The annual rate of population increase (or decrease) was nonlinearly correlated with population density, highlighting the positive (or negative) impact of density variation on demographic growth when the population is sparse (or concentrated). An improved understanding of the density-dependent mechanisms of population growth contributes to a reconsideration of urban strategies and socio-demographic policies relating to heterogeneous regional contexts.