Changes over time in the spatial structure of fertility rates as a dynamic indicator of urban transformations

Since fertility varies largely over space responding to socioeconomic transformations, a spatially explicit analysis of birth rates may contribute to a refined understanding of the intimate linkage between demographic change and metropolitan growth in low-fertility countries, and especially in Europe. The present study investigates changes in the spatial structure of fertility levels over 60 years (1956–2016) in a Southern European metropolitan area (Athens, Greece) with the aim to quantify the impact of long- and short-term socioeconomic transformations on regional and local fertility patterns. A statistical approach integrating global and local Moran’s spatial autocorrelation indexes, non-parametric inference, and multivariate exploratory techniques was adopted to investigate the influence of a long-term urban cycle (urbanization, suburbanization, counter-urbanization, re-urbanization) and short-term economic downturns (expansion vs. recession) on the spatial structure of fertility rates. The empirical results of the present study suggest that local fertility in Athens responds to socioeconomic transformations reflecting a complete urban cycle. The spatial structure of local fertility is demonstrated to be a relatively stable feature of complex metropolitan systems, being influenced by social changes during medium-long time scales.