Agro-forest landscape and the 'fringe' city: a multivariate assessment of land-use changes in a sprawling region and implications for planning

The present study evaluates the impact of urban expansion on landscape transformations in Rome's metropolitan area (1500 km2) during the last sixty years. Landscape composition, structure and dynamics were assessed for 1949 and 2008 by analyzing the distribution of 26 metrics for nine land-use classes. Changes in landscape structure are analysed by way of a multivariate statistical approach providing a summary measure of rapidity-to-change for each metric and class. Land fragmentation increased during the study period due to urban expansion. Poorly protected or medium-low value added classes (vineyards, arable land, olive groves and pastures) experienced fragmentation processes compared with protected or high-value added classes (e.g. forests, olive groves) showing larger ‘core’ areas and lower fragmentation. The relationship observed between class area and mean patch size indicates increased fragmentation for all uses of land (both expanding and declining) except for urban areas and forests. Reducing the impact of urban expansion for specific land-use classes is an effective planning strategy to contrast the simplification of Mediterranean landscape in peri-urban areas.