Demographic transition vis à vis forest transition: a multivariate exploratory analysis in Italy

The present study analyses historical trends (1862-2009) in six variables assessing demographic dynamics in Italy compared with two indicators of forest expansion with the aim to verify the temporal coherence between population and forest transitions at the country scale. The study develops an exploratory data analysis based on principal component analysis, hierarchical and non-hierarchical clustering, non- parametric statistics identifying three time intervals (1862-1920, 1921- 1975, 1976-2009) with homogeneous characteristics in both population and forest attributes. Different relationships (positive linear, negative linear and curvilinear) were found between the studied variables indicating divergent demographic and environmental time patterns during 1862- 2009. The paper provides an empirical assessment of the population- environment nexus in Italy.