Spatial distribution of coffee crop productivity in Minas Gerais over time

Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer and the state of Minas Gerais is responsible for half of the Brazilian production. However, productivity is unevenly distributed throughout the state. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the spatial distribution of coffee productivity in Minas Gerais from 2002 to 2017, a valuable information to identify regions where coffee production may be more promising in the future. This paper investigates the existence of spatial dependence of productivity between regions (using Moran's I), its dynamics throughout the period and the presence of clusters of high and low productivity (using local Moran's I). The results show that the spatial dependence of productivity was stronger from 2002 to 2009 than between 2010 and 2017. Some regions with small coffee areas but high productivity have stopped producing the crop whereas some of those with large areas but low productivity increased their productivity levels. Therefore, there is a tendency of homogenization of productivity in Minas Gerais, with values close to 30 bags per hectare