New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades (1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; (2) GDP will shift toward sub-Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; (3) living standards of working-age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; (4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower-income nations; (5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and (6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional, and global economies.
Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy / Andrew, Mason; Ronald, Lee; Abrigo, Michael; Aliyev, Ruslan; Amporfu, Eugenia; Bengtsson, Tommy; Biao, Barthelemy; Rosero Bixby, Luis; Bruil, Arjan; Bucheli, Marisa; Byambaa, Enkhtsetseg; Chlon-Dominczak, Agnieszka; Comelatto, Pablo; Coy, Deidra; D’Albis, Hippolyte; Denissenko, Mikhail; Donehower, Gretchen; Doumbo, Sadou; Dramani, Latif; Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia; Gal, Robert; Gee, Christopher; González, Cecilia; Aizan Hamid, Tengku; Hammer, Bernhard; Holz, Mauricio; Istenic, Tanja; PamelaJiménez-Fontana, ; Ke, Shen; Khondker, Bazlul; Kyung Kim, Hyun; Kluge, Fanny; Koosheshi, Majid; Ladusingh, Laishram; Sim Lai, Mun; Lee, Sang-Hyop; Long, Thanh; Lopes, Silvino; Lupusor, Adrian; Córdova Macías, Ricardo; Matsukura, Rikiya; Mccarthy, David; Mejia, Iván; Merette, Marcel; Mwabu, Germano; Narayana, M. R.; Nava, Isalia; Nor, Vanndy; Norte, Gilberto; Ogawa, Naohiro; Olaniyan, Olanrewaju; Olivera, Javier; Oosthuizen, Morne; Patxot, Concepció; Rice, James; Riyaza, Fathimath; Saad, Paulo; Sambt, Joze; Seckin, Aylin; Sefton, James; Serafini, Verónica; Songvilay, Latdavanh; Souto, Guadalupe; Suwankitti, Wanchat; Toan, Pham; Torres, Nimia; Tova, Jorge; Tung, An-Chi; Turra, Cassio; Urdinola, Piedad; Vaittinen, Risto; Zannella, Marina. - In: POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW. - ISSN 0098-7921. - 48:1(2022), pp. 51-73. [10.1111/padr.12469]
Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy
Marina Zannella
2022
Abstract
New estimates of economic flows by age combined with population projections show that in the coming decades (1) global GDP growth could be slower by about 1 percentage point per year, declining more sharply than population growth; (2) GDP will shift toward sub-Saharan Africa more than population trends suggest; (3) living standards of working-age adults may be squeezed by high spending on children and seniors; (4) changing population age distribution will raise living standards in many lower-income nations; (5) changing economic life cycles will amplify the economic effects of population aging in many higher income economies; and (6) population aging will likely push public debt, private assets, and perhaps productivity higher. Population change will have profound implications for national, regional, and global economies.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
---|---|---|---|
Zannella_Six-Ways-Population_2022.pdf
accesso aperto
Tipologia:
Versione editoriale (versione pubblicata con il layout dell'editore)
Licenza:
Creative commons
Dimensione
512.95 kB
Formato
Adobe PDF
|
512.95 kB | Adobe PDF |
I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.