Strumenti analitici per la difesa europea. Modello deinometrico e pleiocriticità, modello buleutropico e interessi strategici nazionali

The systemic structure and evolutionary rules of European defense can be understood starting from the post-bipolar context, to be analyzed according to the principles of chaotic systems. To reduce complexity, we introduce the “deinometric” model, that cross-correlates interdependence and competition variables. It shows that European security and defense are subject to a force field that can be described by the category of “pleiocriticality”: a state characterized by proliferation of medium-high impact and high probability risks. However, Eu member States act within an intergovernamental framework, pursuing their strategic interests. The latter are linked to the decision-making mechanisms of Pesco, Ei2 and the Aachen Treaty by an abductive logic (a new formulation of which is provided): a) to analyze decision-making processes, we introduce the “buleutropic” model, which cross-correlates structuring and widening variables; b) Germany is the dominant economy in Europe but lacks strength in defense, while France is a leader in the sector; c) therefore, Germany has promoted an enlarged unanimity-based Pesco to preserve its primacy, France has launched an exclusive informal Ei2 to try to change the balance of power, and the “epiplocist” Aachen Treaty acts as a “clearing house” between them. If Ei2 keeps on rising, to be competitive Pesco will have to evolve its decision-making mechanisms. The Italian interest should be to carry out bilateral agreements with France and Germany. Within a scenario of hybrid and cyber warfare, Eu should extend the perimeter of its technological sovereignty to de facto dual use 5G, on the model of the Galileo satellite system.