Modelling Health Transitions in Italy: A Generalized Linear Model with Disability Duration

Italy is characterized by a population aging produced by both life expectancy increases and fertility rates reduction, as a consequence the social security system is exposed to an increasing disability risk. The Italian National Institute of Social Security (INPS) protects workers through two economic benefits, invalidity benefits (provided to workers whose working capacity is reduced by at least a third) and disability benefits (provided to workers who are completely and permanently unable to return to any working activity). The aim of this paper is modeling health transitions in a multi-state Markov model, developing a Generalized Linear Model including age effects, duration effects and age-duration interaction as covariates explaining health transitions.