The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼ 150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review re- assesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantifi- cation, understanding and prediction of the individual contri- butions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the historical relative sea-level rise in Venice. The current best estimate of the average rate of sea-level rise during the obser- vational period from 1872 to 2019 based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is ob- served for more recent years. Between 1993 and 2019, anaverage change of about +2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year is estimated from tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence. Unfortu- nately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable sea-level data within the Venice Lagoon. Local sea-level changes in Venice closely depend on sea-level variations in the Adri- atic Sea, which in turn are linked to sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar and its drivers currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global- mean value. Regional atmospheric and oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual and interdecadal future variability in Venetian sea level with a magnitude com- parable to that observed in the past. On the basis of regional projections of sea-level rise and an understanding of the local and regional processes affecting relative sea-level trends in Venice, the likely range of atmospherically corrected relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 ranges between 32 and 62 cm for the RCP2.6 scenario and between 58 and 110 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. A plausible but unlikely high- end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 180 cm of relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projec- tions of human-induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they have the potential to produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, exacerbating the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level changes.

Sea-level rise in Venice. Historic and future trends (review article) / Zanchettin, Davide; Bruni, Sara; Raicich, Fabio; Lionello, Piero; Adloff, Fanny; Androsov, Alexey; Antonioli, Fabrizio; Artale, Vincenzo; Carminati, Eugenio; Ferrarin, Christian; Fofonova, Vera; Nicholls, Robert J.; Rubinetti, Sara; Rubino, Angelo; Sannino, Gianmaria; Spada, Giorgio; Thiéblemont, Rémi; Tsimplis, Michael; Umgiesser, Georg; Vignudelli, Stefano; Wöppelmann, Guy; Zerbini, Susanna. - In: NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES. - ISSN 1684-9981. - 21:8(2021), pp. 2643-2678. [10.5194/nhess-21-2643-2021]

Sea-level rise in Venice. Historic and future trends (review article)

Carminati, Eugenio;
2021

Abstract

The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼ 150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review re- assesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantifi- cation, understanding and prediction of the individual contri- butions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the historical relative sea-level rise in Venice. The current best estimate of the average rate of sea-level rise during the obser- vational period from 1872 to 2019 based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is ob- served for more recent years. Between 1993 and 2019, anaverage change of about +2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year is estimated from tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence. Unfortu- nately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable sea-level data within the Venice Lagoon. Local sea-level changes in Venice closely depend on sea-level variations in the Adri- atic Sea, which in turn are linked to sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar and its drivers currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global- mean value. Regional atmospheric and oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual and interdecadal future variability in Venetian sea level with a magnitude com- parable to that observed in the past. On the basis of regional projections of sea-level rise and an understanding of the local and regional processes affecting relative sea-level trends in Venice, the likely range of atmospherically corrected relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 ranges between 32 and 62 cm for the RCP2.6 scenario and between 58 and 110 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. A plausible but unlikely high- end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 180 cm of relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projec- tions of human-induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they have the potential to produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, exacerbating the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level changes.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11573/1576417
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