Modeling, analysis and control of COVID-19 in Italy: Study of scenarios

Since the beginning of 2020 in few weeks all the world has been interested by the pandemic due to SARSCoV 2, causing more than 3 millions of dead people and more than 146 millions of infected patients. The virus moves with people and the most effective containment measure appears to be the severe lockdown; on the other hand, for obvious social and economic reasons, it can not be applied for long periods. Moreover, the increasing knwoledge on the virus and on its trasmission modes suggested various strategies, such as the use of masks, social distancing, disinfection and the fast identification of infected patients, up to the recent vaccination campaign. In this paper, the COVID-19 spread is studied referring to the Italian situation; the control actions introduced during 2020-2021 are identified in terms of their actual effects, allowing to study possible intervention scenarios.