Partitioning of bronchopulmonary carcinoids in two different prognostic categories by Ki-67 score

Introduction: Histological distinction between typical and atypical bronchopulmonary car- cinoids is based on mitotic activity and necrosis. Regardless of these two parameters, outcome after surgery is often unpredictable. In this study the prognostic value of different clinico-pathological factors was retrospectively analyzed in a large series of patients with bronchopulmonary carcinoid. Materials and Methods: The long-term post-surgical out- come of 106 radically treated patients affected by bronchopulmonary carcinoid from two Italian centers was correlated with tumor characteristics assessed by combining conven- tional histology with a panel of immunohistochemical markers of neuroendocrine differen- tiation (chromogranin-A, NSE) and proliferation activity (Ki-67 score). Results: Carcinoids were assessed as typical (TC = 75; 70.8%) and atypical (AC = 31; 29.2%). Mean follow-up was 8.3 years (range: 0-20; median: 8.0). All cases expressed neuroendocrine markers. At univariate analysis, tumor recurrence [14/75 TC (18.7%), 15/31 AC (48.4%)] correlated with carcinoid histotype (P = 0.003), tumor size (P = 0.012), mitotic index (P = 0.044), Ki-67 score (P < 0.0001), and synchronous node metastasis (P = 0.037). Of these, Cox multivari- ate analysis confirmed only Ki-67 score as independent predictor of disease recurrence (P = 0.009). The best cut-off for Ki-67 score (calculated by ROC curves) discriminating recurrent vs non-recurrent disease was 4% (sensitivity 79.3%; specificity 83.8%; area under the curve 0.85). By stratifying patients according to this cut-off, a significantly dif- ferent disease-free survival was found (log-rank test P < 0.0001). Conclusion: Ki-67 score accurately separates bronchopulmonary carcinoids in two well-distinct histo-prognostic categories. Ki-67 score predicts the patients outcome better than mitotic count, histotype, and tumor stage and it is therefore helpful in establishing the appropriate follow-up. © 2011 Grimaldi, Muser, Beltrami, Machin, Morelli, Pizzolitto, Talmassons, Marciello, Colao, Monaco, Monaco and Faggiano.